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Year : 2012  |  Volume : 56  |  Issue : 4  |  Page : 281-285

Forecasting incidence of dengue in Rajasthan, using time series analyses

1 OSD (ME), Government of Rajasthan, Jaipur, India
2 Assistant Professor, Institute of Health Management Research, Jaipur, India
3 Director, Institute of Health Management Research, Jaipur, India
4 Director (Public Health), Directorate of Medical Health and Family Welfare, Government of Rajasthan, India

Correspondence Address:
Vivek Lal
Assistant Professor, Institute of Health Management Research, 1, Prabhu Dayal Marg, Sanganer Airport, Jaipur - 302 011
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Source of Support: None, Conflict of Interest: None

DOI: 10.4103/0019-557X.106415

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Aim: To develop a prediction model for dengue fever/dengue haemorrhagic fever (DF/DHF) using time series data over the past decade in Rajasthan and to forecast monthly DF/DHF incidence for 2011. Materials and Methods: Seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model was used for statistical modeling. Results: During January 2001 to December 2010, the reported DF/DHF cases showed a cyclical pattern with seasonal variation. SARIMA (0,0,1) (0,1,1) 12 model had the lowest normalized Bayesian information criteria (BIC) of 9.426 and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 263.361 and appeared to be the best model. The proportion of variance explained by the model was 54.3%. Adequacy of the model was established through Ljung-Box test (Q statistic 4.910 and P-value 0.996), which showed no significant correlation between residuals at different lag times. The forecast for the year 2011 showed a seasonal peak in the month of October with an estimated 546 cases. Conclusion: Application of SARIMA model may be useful for forecast of cases and impending outbreaks of DF/DHF and other infectious diseases, which exhibit seasonal pattern.

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